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Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald Poll Shows Trump and Sanders Ahead in New Hampshire

January 26, 2016

With only a few short weeks before the Granite State’s first-in-the-nation primary, Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald released their most recent Presidential Poll for the Republican and Democratic candidates this morning. The results continue to show Donald Trump with a sizable lead over the rest of the GOP field, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has re-opened his lead over former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in the Democratic primary.

Donald Trump is the clear favorite in the race amongst likely Republican primary voters with 33 percent, up 7-points from the Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald December poll. Senator Ted Cruz (14%) and Governor John Kasich (12%) are vying for second, with Governor Jeb Bush (9%), Senator Marco Rubio (8%) and Governor Chris Christie (7%) in the mix. The remaining candidates all polled at 5% and below.

There is more good news for Trump in New Hampshire as 55 percent of Republican voters in New Hampshire believe Trump will be the eventual nominee, up from 38 percent in December and 58 percent of likely Republican primary voters described their choice as firm, leaving 42 percent of voters with unresolved choices. Trump’s supporters also continue to be among the most adamant, with approximately three-fourths (76%) describing their choice as firm. Meanwhile, conviction is less common among supporters of establishment candidates such as Bush (32% firm) and Rubio (39% firm).

These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted by RKM Research and Communications, January 20-24, 2016. The survey is based on responses from 444 randomly selected likely Republican primary voters. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.

On the Democratic side, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s popularity with Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has dropped in the most recent poll, falling from 83 percent in December to 74 percent in the most recent poll, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ popularity continues to climb. Sanders’ favorability was at 56 percent in March, 76 percent in August, 83 percent in October, 85 percent in December and currently sits at 90 percent. Only nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters have an unfavorable view toward Sanders. This shift has allowed Sanders to re-open a 16-point lead over Clinton, 55% to 39%.

Sanders has also started to chip away at Clinton’s wide lead when voters are asked who they think will win the nomination. Today, 52 percent of Democratic primary voters think Hillary Clinton will ultimately win the nomination, down sharply from 74 percent just a month ago. Meanwhile 37 percent of Democratic primary voters think Sanders will win the nomination, up significantly from just 16 percent in December.

As expected, the race is beginning to firm up with 78 percent of Democratic primary voters reporting that they have made a firm choice, while 22 percent report that they could still change their mind. In August, 40 percent of Clinton’s voters said that they had made a firm choice to vote for her. Since then, Clinton has climbed to 77 percent in this most recent survey. Sanders’ support also appears to be firming up, with 82 percent of Sanders’ supporters reported that they have made a “firm choice.”

The survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 408 likely Democratic presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, January 20-24, 2016. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.

The full report is available.
NH Poll Results October 2015


 

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FRANKLIN PIERCE UNIVERSITY
                 An education that matters.

Franklin Pierce University is a regionally accredited university grounded in the liberal arts, with a focus on personal attention and high-quality instruction. The University consists of the College at Rindge and the College of Graduate & Professional Studies with locations in Arizona and throughout New Hampshire. Degrees are offered through the doctoral level. The institutional mission embraces an education that matters: one that achieves academic success through the integration of liberal arts and professional programs. Our community of educators and learners creates an environment that fosters intellectual curiosity and encourages experiential and applied learning. A Franklin Pierce experience enables each student to discover and fulfill his or her own unique potential. We prepare students to become confident, knowledgeable individuals and leaders of conscience.

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